Speaker 1:
As a bank that focuses on business, we work with business leaders all day every day. We have a front-row seat to what's working and what has potential. The First Business Bank Podcast is dedicated to sharing insights to help you work better, smarter, and faster to achieve your goals. Let's get into the show.
Kevin Kane:
Welcome to another First Business Bank Podcast. I'm Kevin Kane and I'll be the host for today's episode on Manufacturing Trends in Wisconsin. To help us explore this topic further, I'm joined by two of my first business bank colleagues, Tom Dott and Jerimiah Janssen. Would each of you take a moment to introduce yourselves to our listeners?
Tom Dott:
Sure. I'll start, Kevin. Thanks for having me. My name is Tom Dott. I'm a commercial banker here at First Business Bank in Madison and part of our Manufacturing Industry Practice Group.
Jerimiah Janssen:
Yeah, thanks for having me as well, Kevin. Happy to be here. I've been with First Business Bank for eight years, been in commercial banking for 20-plus. I also am on the Manufacturing Industry Practice Group here at First Business Bank.
Kevin Kane:
Terrific. Well, thank you, Tom, and Jerimiah for participating today. To start our conversation, what I thought I'd do is recap some of the major macroeconomic and global events from 2022 to provide a little bit of context for us as we start the new year. Among other things, we saw a big jump in inflation, including energy costs, rising interest rates, continued low unemployment, of course, the war in Ukraine, ongoing trade challenges, and a resurgence of COVID due to new variants. Tom, I'll start with you. Based on what I just described as well as results from the 2022 Wisconsin Manufacturing Report that we co-sponsored this past fall, what are some of the big-picture themes that you're hearing about and that manufacturers are experiencing right now?
Tom Dott:
Yeah, that's a great question, Kevin. I know we'll get into this later, but actually, a lot has changed since that manufacturing report came out in the fall already, as dynamic as things are. However, some things still continue to hold true. First and foremost, labor continues to be a challenge for folks to find and keep people. We'll talk a little bit later about some of the strategies they're using to do that.
Then secondarily is just backlog and backlog in the sense that backlogs appear to be strong going into 2023, but new orders are slowing on the front end, lead times are decreasing and normalizing a little bit, but that continues to be a challenge for folks as well. Then you mentioned earlier supply chain and the impact that has on working capital. We'll talk more about that. Then the need for automation. I think most people recognize that they have to embrace automation. They struggle a little bit with the cost and how to most appropriately do that.
Kevin Kane:
Got it. Thank you. That is a good framework I think that we can use as we get further into today's conversation, so with that, what I'd like to do is drill into some of those specific elements, see where that leads our conversation. Jerimiah, let's start with you on that. As you're talking to clients and prospects throughout the market, what are businesses expecting relative to supply chain issues? Let's start with that. Any specific strategies that they're thinking about at this point?
Jerimiah Janssen:
Yeah, as you mentioned, there's been major disruptions in the supply chains over the last two years. As Tom mentioned, some of the things from a logistics service standpoint, and also, supply chain bottlenecks have started to ease. However, most managers I'm talking with don't expect the normal supply chain to be back until at least 2024. Actually, more of a recent article that I did read was on manufacturing orders coming from China are down 40%. This has significantly dropped container cost and also has alleviated some stress at key ports here in the United States. Warehouse space is still an issue. Inventory levels are still very high. Then also, material cost. Certain sectors, they've been coming down from a commodity standpoint, but we're still seeing some stay high. From a strategy standpoint, companies are still working with their tier-one suppliers as much as possible, but they've also tried to diversify their supplier bases looking beyond their normal suppliers.
Kevin Kane:
Maybe you've got me thinking of one thing, specifically that there's a term that had emerged or come back over the last 12-plus months, onshoring. If you think about some of the things you were just describing, Jerimiah, are you hearing, and Tom, you can weigh in on this as well, but is that still a theme? Is anything moving forward on that or changing?
Tom Dott:
It definitely is a theme and we're definitely seeing it happen and that is exasperating some of these issues we're talking about is more and more of that demand and production capacity is being absorbed here domestically and yet we still aren't able to find the labor force to support it, so it's good and it's good and bad. I think overall it's good, but it has its shared challenges.
Kevin Kane:
To continue with the theme and stick with supply chain topic, I think you touched on this, Jerimiah, but what does it mean for inventory levels and from there maybe overall working capital management for companies? We get a lot of financial statements, so that's one way to gauge inventory turns and days outstanding, but any particular observations, or comments that either of you would like to share with our listeners relative to working capital management?
Jerimiah Janssen:
Well, I would just suggest that I think when you talk about working capital and inventory management, part of the issue was having the supply, and the other issue was the price. When things were really, really bad, people would give price quotes that were good for hours, not days, or even weeks. I think a lot of people were really concerned about two things. Number one, can we get the raw materials that we needed, and what price are we going to have to pay for them? Because early on in the first part of 2022, I think a lot of people were wanting to believe that this was transient inflation, and so people were relatively apprehensive in doing significant price increases, yet their material costs were increasing, so the first part of the year, I mean, we really saw pretty significant margin erosion in the first part of the year until people finally realized, "Hey, this isn't going away, and it's probably going to get worse before it gets better," and started to get caught up with price increases. That was part of the game.
But going back to what I said earlier about backlog, I think now the concern is that we've got these orders, but are they going to stick, and are we going to still fulfill them, and are the clients still going to want to take the product? Because I think there, too, as schedules were filling up and people were having extended lead times, I think a lot of folks were just putting in blanket orders for stuff just to get space on the calendar to make sure they could get the stuff when they needed them. I think there's some general concern that some of those orders might not stick.
Kevin Kane:
Yeah, those are some really good points. I'm thinking about some of the things we're hearing here in Southeast Wisconsin from clients and prospects as well. It's everything you described, and while maybe some of the cost increases for materials has moderated a little bit, maybe companies are working through some of that extra inventory because they didn't want to run out and stall out some of their output or production. I still think it's pretty complicated.
One of the things that I'm reflecting on is the fact that we measure utilization of working capital lines of credit, so a company has a $5 million line of credit, what percentage of that commitment is being used? If I think back 12, 18 months ago, some of the cash and liquidity that accumulated by virtue of PPP perhaps, line utilization was quite low. We're definitely seeing that pick up. That to me is another way to measure some of the effects of what you and Jerimiah have been describing, and so I think that's going to take some time to play out and work through. It's hard to predict, I suppose, where that's gonna go.
Tom Dott:
I would just add to that Kevin, too, that back to the working capital issue and the impact that has is as people were stockpiling those inventories, a lot of them were using their lines to do that with the assumption that they were going to continue to turn through it. Well, if all of a sudden, some of those turns start to slow, now you've got utilization on your line for other short-term needs that might arise that you don't have the capacity anymore, so I think it's something we're keeping a close eye on as relates to what those were utilized for, and how they're being turned.
Kevin Kane:
Yeah, yeah. That'll lead into some other things, I think, as we continue our conversation here, and we've been talking around this to some extent, but back to this idea of inflation. Let's talk a little bit maybe more broadly or build off of what we were just describing, but how about cost or pricing pressures? Are companies continuing to pay more? Are they having the opportunity to pass along those increases in cost more easily? With all of those puts and takes, what's happening with margins and profitability overall? Either of you have any sort of observations around that side of the equation?
Tom Dott:
I'll jump in quick, Jerimiah, and I'll turn it back over to you. But again, even since the Wisconsin Manufacturing Report came out and we have started to see inflation take hold a little bit, a lot of raw material prices have come down, some of them pretty significantly on a percentage basis. I don't think we're seeing the same pricing pressure in terms of up, but I think what people are going to start to see is some pricing pressure down now as those material prices going up.
But that being said, going back to what I said earlier, we've seen a very, very return to healthy margins here in the second half of 2022 as those price cases took hold. Now, the reality of it is I think once things go up relative to price, I mean, they're generally not going back to where they were. But I think we'll see some retreat in that, but margins in the second half of the year, were pretty strong. We'll see what happens now as those material prices continue to drop.
Jerimiah Janssen:
Yeah, and on top of that, I think if you're looking at last year, a lot of companies were more concerned about gathering whatever they ordered on time. They weren't necessarily looking at the price. Price increases were, I would say, much easier to pass along then than they are right now. I have been talking with a number of my manufacturing clients and they're being asked that, "Hey, look, we're going to be a little bit more competitive. We're going to take a little bit deeper dive into our pricing and our bidding activity, so just to let you know that there's going to be more competition this year." That's what we're hearing from our clients right now.
Kevin Kane:
Yeah, which makes sense to me. I think everything you guys have touched on registers here as well. I do think that, back to inventory as a driver of a lot of decisions that companies might make, but if they are carrying more than they now need, if we do start to move into a recession, now all of a sudden, there's this possibility that in an effort to reduce inventory levels, companies may start to make reductions in pricing of the products they're selling, for example, so that could move things in the other direction. Then back to lines of credit and what utilization rates are looking like now in a rising rate environment, interest expense increases. There are some contradictory dynamics at work, it seems to me, but I would expect that going into 2023 here, we may see margins get squeezed a bit.
Then beyond that here, here's something that's the elephant in the room in some respects, and I think it's a good segue into the topic of workforce and labor. It's been a persistent challenge finding and retaining employees and this idea that there was a recent article I know that indicated that there are 40,000 open manufacturing jobs in Wisconsin, so if you think about the share of labor in the cost structure of many of our manufacturers, it's a pretty significant part of that. What's happening there? Let's talk about workforce availability, labor, costs, all that type of stuff.
Tom Dott:
Yeah, I think everybody's trying to figure out where all these people went that we had in the workforce pre-pandemic. I'm not sure if there's an island somewhere or what where they all went off to, but I don't know what happened to that workforce, but I think everybody's just trying to figure out how they make do with what they have. There's all sorts of things being done out there to try to get creative and attracting employees, whether it be flex time, some of these crazy hiring bonuses that people are putting out there, childcare, transportation, whatever else it is, it's amazing to see the ingenuity that people are putting out there to try to attract the right people, and retain the right people.
Jerimiah Janssen:
Yeah, Tom, just to add on that, talking with my folks here is that their number one priority going into next year is retaining that top talent that they do have. They can't lose them, they need them, and then also continuing to find that employee base. I would say that talking with some manufacturers now is that they're actually at a point where they're feeling comfortable with their staffing levels and they've actually started to be a little bit more selective with employees that they're hiring. But overall, looking at wages, yeah, that's been a big part of their discussion is there was a large significant increase in wages the last year. I think that's starting to fade a little bit.
Kevin Kane:
Is there a sense as well, again, with the possibility of a recession here and a slowdown, is it possible that some of that pressure, that there's a little bit more relief there, whether it's in the form of not having to be so aggressive in terms of wage rates, or maybe not feeling as much of a squeeze in terms of availability of supply, I'll call it, of workers? Have you had any insights or getting any insights on that as you're in the market talking to folks?
Tom Dott:
Yeah, and I would say definitely to Jerimiah's point, well, what I'm hearing is that they're seeing more applicants, they're better quality applicants and seems to be much less pressure on what they're having to pay. They still have to be competitive, and it's still tough out there, but it is definitely improving.
Kevin Kane:
Any other thoughts on availability and retaining talent before I shift to another related topic that certainly enters into the equation when we talk about managing through capacity?
Jerimiah Janssen:
Yeah, for the most part, again, I think it's just trying to be more flexible. However, with that, and this might be where you're going, Kevin, is that they're looking at automation. How do they improve efficiencies? How can they maintain margins or improve it? Some of the things that we're looking at or hearing about is robots, automation, data analytics, anything that they can do to maybe offset, and then also better utilize those people that may be doing something now that they don't like, and put them to someplace that where they can be more productive.
Kevin Kane:
Right, so to your point, that's where I was going to go was all of that being said, let's talk a little bit more about how companies are using automation or technology to mitigate issues and risks around the workforce. I think some of it is everything. Tom, you touched on it. There's been this disappearance to some extent of labor. Where did all these folks go?
Then we really didn't touch on it, but it's a variation on that theme, which is where our younger worker is going to come from because certainly in the state of Wisconsin, the demographics are not particularly favorable in terms of if you look at primary and secondary education and who's going to be coming out of school into the workforce going forward. Beyond what we maybe are talking through here relative to recession, yes or no, supply chain issues, et cetera, demographics are going to be there for a long time, if not forever, so let's talk a little bit more about automation and the decisions and in the context of arising rate environment and some of those other changes, how does that affect the economics of automation and technology as a potential solution?
Tom Dott:
Yeah, I think it's interesting because I think that starts to spill over into the culture of a company. When you talk about the next generation of the workforce, I think the next generation of the workforce wants to work for a company that shows some innovation and isn't afraid to look at doing things differently and embrace technology and find ways to make it work. I mean, they want to be challenged. They want to be in a situation where they can be part of a solution and be part of that decision as it relates to, "What are we looking to automate? How are we going to do it? What's the best way to do it?", and really have some skin in the game and feel as though they're a much bigger part of something bigger than just a job. I think it's that whole notion of building a culture of career and future as it is to a transaction.
Jerimiah Janssen:
Yeah, on my end, again, I'm part of ATECH, which is a charter school. It's in the school district for manufacturing careers. The good thing there is our school is full from a enrollment standpoint, there's a lot of individuals that want to be a part of it, so that's growing. Part of that, I think, is where is manufacturing going. How is it innovative? What's fun about it? The great thing is we're working with local manufacturers, bringing them in, having them speak with our students, showing them how to do certain demonstrations. We're bringing in new equipment as well. But yeah, for the most part, as you've mentioned, Tom, once someone starts automating, bringing on new equipment, it seems like it escalates and accelerates from there.
Kevin Kane:
Yeah, that makes a lot of sense to me. I mean, I think it takes what may have been a more mundane job, and there's a bit of excitement around it, so there's this maybe virtuous circle when it comes to retaining the folks that you've got, attracting new employees, attracting younger workers, and integrating and utilizing automation and technology to create more interesting work and careers and effort for those folks.
Something you just touched on, Jerimiah, as well, I saw some interesting statistics recently about the UW system and four-year colleges. It isn't unique to Wisconsin, per se, but here in Wisconsin, we've got a really strong technical college ecosystem, if you will. When you look at trends for enrollment and students and folks that maybe got a four-year degree in something that upon further reflection isn't really marketable, you've got graduates with four-year degrees returning to the technical college system to learn new skills. I think that that's not going to solve every problem when it comes to labor for our manufacturing companies here in the state, but I do think it's a bright spot when you contemplate all of these competing demands and some of the challenges from a demographic point of view.
Tom Dott:
Yeah, you're right, Kevin. I would just add to that, I mean, it truly has been inspirational through the pandemic and through this labor challenge to see what some of these manufacturers are doing in terms of their own innovation. I mean, they are collectively taking on this challenge head on, whether it's embracing the local school districts, and getting involved with their tech programs, and really trying to be the solution to the problem instead of looking to somebody else to solve it for them. It's been remarkable for me to talk to our clients and learn what they're doing and the strategies they're undertaking to help build that next generation. We need more of that.
Kevin Kane:
Yeah, I really like that point because the old saying, "Necessity's the mother of invention," and so to the extent that labor shortages force companies to find another way, and it sparks innovation, while it is very, very tough to get from point A to point B and work through some of those things, I do think there's some real positive outcomes if we look at the last couple of years, and certainly going forward as well.
I wanted to ask both of you a little bit more of a specific, maybe a financial question, and it could be whether we're talking about automation or just capital expenditures in general, or expansion projects. What are you hearing in terms of higher rates? How are those impacting choices? Are you hearing about go/no-go type decisions based on that factor because it's affecting the ROI of a particular project? Is that a thing or not from what you guys are seeing?
Tom Dott:
Good question. I think it's a thing, but it's not a deal-breaker. I think people are reflecting on the fact that single-digit interest rates relative to the last 25 years are still pretty good. You can borrow money in that. I think the one trend that I have seen, and this really applies to automation, I think early on when automation really became in vogue, people were really focused on a really quick payback on a automation investment. I think what they've come to realize, in part because it's gotten a little bit more expensive, is that they need to be a little more tolerant of an ROI and a payback on that and have been willing to stretch that out a little bit further, which includes higher interest rates. I think they're looking at and still saying, "This is something we have to do and the payback is still there. Maybe it's a little longer than we ideally would like it to be, but it's still well worth it."
Jerimiah Janssen:
I think as we mentioned before, 2023 still looks very strong for them. Their outlook is good. I'm still seeing a lot of quoting activity for manufacturers that are looking at buying new pieces of equipment, adding on, improving efficiencies. Again, going back, they're looking at where that tight labor market was. If we were to go back to that, they don't want to be in that same spot either, so they know by moving forward with a new piece of equipment that can improve operations, improve productions. They might be looking at the calculation a little bit more as Tom mentioned, but again, they're still moving forward. I have not seen any like no/no-gos at this point.
Tom Dott:
I would just add on to that, too, I think that if the labor market softens and people are able to get the people that they need and the quality people that they need, I think that could be an accelerant to growth as it relates to physical plant expansions, investment in new equipment 'cause I'm still hearing even just this week that people are still turning away work, new opportunity because they just can't find the people to do it.
Kevin Kane:
Yeah, yeah, which again, that's encouraging. A quick, it's not really an aside, but I feel really good big picture about the state of Wisconsin's manufacturing base. A lot of really talented folks, a lot of ingenuity, hardworking, and balance sheets over the last couple of years in part because of PPP and some healthy demand are still in pretty good shape overall for most companies and there's a fair amount of liquidity there. I like what both of you are talking about. It's encouraging. We're also a pretty conservative place, so I'm not worried about our manufacturers getting too far out over their skis and to the extent that relative to historical standards or trends, interest rates, while having gone up, are still middle of the fairway, and generally speaking, if a project and an investment reinvestment in the business made sense at 4%, at 6%, that's a little bit different, or higher, but still fundamentally it's the right choice.
Okay. I want to revisit the topic, if I could, about workforce and talent, but from a little bit of a different angle. Many of our customers and prospects at First Business are privately held companies, middle-market companies, in some cases they represent multiple generations of leadership and ownership with the baby boom retiring out. What are you either of you hearing in terms of business succession trends? Tom, I think I'll ask you to comment on that, including maybe the role of ESOPs as a mechanism to facilitate ownership changes.
Tom Dott:
Yeah, that's been a really interesting development of all of this. In some parts, I think people, multi-generational owners are looking at this, and really trying to figure out, "What is my out and what's important to me?" If this is a multi-generational family-owned business, do we really just want to sell out to private equity, or just sell out for the highest price we can or do we want to leave a legacy, and we want to find a way to reward all the employees that got us there?
That just leads right down the path of ESOP considerations. We've been really honored to be a part of a couple of ESOP transactions here in the last couple of years that have turned out just wonderfully. It really changes the game as it relates to employees' perspective on what they're doing day in and day out. I mean, everybody's got skin in the game now, and everybody's celebrating the successes, including the owners. I mean, they've found an opportunity to get out but to preserve the organization and perpetuate it, and again, to reward the people that got them there, so it's really become something to consider again. I mean, it fell out of fashion for a while there, but there's a lot of really great reasons to consider that, not the least of which is to maintain that family legacy, and to reward the people that got you there.
Jerimiah Janssen:
Yeah. On top of that, outside of the ESOP, I still see a large emphasis on building out that management team, taking less responsibility off the owner, and really giving a lot of responsibility to their team to move the company forward.
Kevin Kane:
Yeah, I agree. Same here in Southeast Wisconsin as in the sense that have owners where maybe the next generation, maybe there isn't a next generation, or maybe there's a next generation that doesn't have the same passion or interest, but for that current leadership team, the idea that they're going to sell to a strategic buyer that is somewhere far away or a private equity firm, there's real emotion in it.
Tom, you used the word "legacy" and this idea that they want that company to continue and reward the folks that help them build personal wealth I think is a real thing. I'll tie it back into our earlier discussion around employee attracting new employees and retaining those employees, too, because it's a completely different mindset, whatever your role in a company, that you're now an owner of that as well. I think it's a beautiful thing. To the extent that banks can assist with employee stock ownership plans and help facilitate those kind of transitions, I think it's a really, really cool thing to see.
Let me ask, talked at the top of the conversation here, the podcast about COVID, is it still a material risk factor for businesses? We continue to see variants emerge and we're in the midst of the regular time of the year when that happens, but is it still an issue? What are either of you hearing on that front?
Jerimiah Janssen:
I would definitely tell you it's a lot less of an item today than where it was a year or two ago. Not seeing too much of an impact, if anything. It's maybe sourcing materials from overseas, especially from China and certain ports or cities being shut down there.
Tom Dott:
Yeah, I would agree. Again, in the world of manufacturing, I mean, even in the throes of the pandemic, those folks were there every day still making the stuff we all need, and so I don't think it's much of a... It's still there. I mean, don't get me wrong, and people are still mindful of it and doing all the right things, but I think it's faded away a little bit.
Kevin Kane:
Yeah. You just said something, too, that really resonates for me, Tom, which is manufacturing is so important. It's a huge part of Wisconsin's state economy and we rank very, very high nationally in terms of employment and output from manufacturers. But I always have felt that those manufacturing folks, the companies, the employees over the last couple of years, they're really the unsung heroes because working remote, if you're part of a team that's making something, that's not an option, so I wanted to offer that comment or observation on that front.
Some of the things we've talked about may definitely and are already creating some headwinds, perhaps some challenging environment from manufacturers. Based on what you're hearing from businesses, is there a consensus about whether we're either in a recession already or headed to one in 2023?
Jerimiah Janssen:
Yeah, I would tell you it's at the top of their mind. There's still statistics out there. I mean, if you look at the jobs report, people are still being hired. If anything, I think they're hoping for a soft landing if there is one.
Tom Dott:
I would say that probably late in the fourth quarter, I think a lot of the size manufacturers that we work with, we're probably still feeling pretty good about things, but I will tell you that as I'm having conversations here early in the new year, again, backlogs are strong, but they're definitely seeing a slowdown in new orders coming in. Now, maybe that's a little bit seasonal, but nonetheless, I mean, I think there is a little bit of hesitation and a little hitch in the giddy up here and around the uncertainty of, is this a thing or is this just seasonal?
Kevin Kane:
Right, makes sense. Prepare for certain possibilities, stay focused, but be a little bit more cautious. That makes sense to me. With everything we've covered today, any other advice or guidance you'd like to offer our listeners today based on, you're out there every day meeting with clients, talking to potential clients, anything that we haven't covered or any other trends for manufacturers? Final observations or comments?
Tom Dott:
The one thing I would add is going back to interest rates, there's two sides to the balance sheet. We focus primarily on the debt side. Let's talk a little bit about the asset side of the balance sheet. There's a lot of manufacturers out there that are very fortunate not to have much of any debt and maybe historically have always self-financed their expansions and have the opportunity to have some cash around. I mean, there's some really great opportunities from a short-term liquidity management from an earning standpoint that we haven't seen in 15 years, so I would just suggest and say to people, make sure that you're strategically looking at the other side of your balance sheet and your cash positions and what you're doing with that cash in the form of money markets, laddered CDs, treasuries, earnings, credit rates. There's opportunity right now on that side of the balance sheet.
Kevin Kane:
That's a great observation and I'm really glad you brought it up. Maybe a shameless plug for other podcasts that we've produced in this past year, but the idea of, do you have a strategy for your liquidity, whether it's operating cash, strategic cash, reserve cash? Do you have an investment policy? For a long time, rates were so low on that side of the equation that it didn't really require a whole lot of attention or effort because it wouldn't really make a difference, but it's now making a difference.
To build off of what you just touched on, Tom, this idea that treasury management solutions that banks offer, you can think of it as an opportunity to help with your cash-to-cash cycle, something, Jerimiah, you touched on when we were talking about working capital. There are automation elements to it that's the equivalent in your treasury or accounting function to what you might be doing on the factory floor. I think it's a really good point to wrap up on, which is don't lose sight of treasury management, about interest rates, liquidity, how to put that cash if you have it to work in a more effective way. Think about your process. How are you collecting receivables from your clients to maybe speed that up? How are you sending money out the door? There are some aspects to it that I think are worthy of consideration, especially as we get further into the new year.
Tom Dott:
In the grand scheme of things, this interest rate conversion here happened pretty quickly, so I think a lot caught people by surprise that they haven't realized that, "My goodness, there are opportunities out there now."
Kevin Kane:
Well, I want to thank, Tom, you, and Jerimiah for participating in this discussion today. I want to thank anyone that will watch or listen to the podcast, and if you have any feedback for us, we're always ready to listen to that. I would also say, be sure to visit us at firstbusiness.bank and check out some of the other resources we offer for business owners and leaders and experience the advantage with First Business banking.
Speaker 1:
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